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We all know it’s coming, doesn’t it? This is the kind of intriguing plot that the NFL writers won’t let pass.

The Vikings would be on their way to Atlanta for the NFC wild card round showdown between the 4th and 5th seeds if the playoffs started right now, even though there is still a lot of football left to play in the regular season. Kirk Cousins, an old buddy of mine, would be making his fifth career postseason start if it happened. It would be really riveting.

Up to this point in the NFC playoffs
The Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) methodology, used by FTN Fantasy, ranks the Vikings as the second-best NFC club and the fourth-best NFL team overall. Based on this, Minnesota has a 94.8 percent chance of making it to the playoffs. Their formula for determining the Vikings’ chances of obtaining each of the seven seeding is as follows:

one seed: 4.7%
1.2 percent of the total
3 seeds: 0.1 percent the
0.04% four seeds
five seeds: fifty-one percent
26 seeds: 23.1%
7 seeds: 13.8 percent

Their data suggests that the Vikings will finish with a higher than 50% likelihood of securing the No. 5 seed. For the simple reason that their expected win total is just enough to keep them ahead of the other wild card clubs, not quite enough to overtake the Lions. There is a 92.9 percent probability that Detroit will win the NFC North and an 85.8 percent chance that they will be the No. 1 seed. Detroit is the team with the highest DVOA by a significant margin.

According to DVOA, the Falcons have the best chance of finishing as the No. 4 seed (47.9%). Atlanta is a sure bet to finish last among the four NFC division champions, however the Buccaneers (18.2) and Cardinals (16.7) also have a good chance of finishing fourth, and the other three NFC West clubs are also not out of the question.

In related news, the playoff model has the Vikings finishing third in the NFC.
There is still a lot of work for the Vikings to accomplish in the last seven games of the regular season before the playoffs. The seven games are all against NFC teams with winning records of 4–6, and four of them are against teams in the same division. Major seeding games may also be decided by the Vikings’ upcoming matches against the Seahawks, the Cardinals, and the Falcons.

In Week 14, U.S. Bank Stadium will undoubtedly host a Vikings-Cousins game. If this season continues to go according to plan, we may be playing in Atlanta again in five weeks for a divisional round berth. Either the team that passed on re-signing Cousins this offseason ends up sending him packing, or the other way around. The fact that this would be the first time the two clubs have met in the playoffs since the notorious 1998 NFC Championship Game in Minnesota just adds to the tension.